摘 要
随着信息技术的迅猛发展，大数据技术为公共政策制定提供了全新的方法论支持和实践路径。本研究旨在探讨如何利用大数据技术提升公共政策制定的科学性、精准性和有效性，以应对传统政策制定过程中信息不对称、数据匮乏及决策滞后等问题。研究基于多源大数据采集与融合技术，结合机器学习算法和数据挖掘方法，构建了一套完整的政策分析框架，用于识别社会问题、预测政策效果以及优化决策方案。通过实证分析，研究选取了城市交通管理、公共卫生应急响应和社会福利分配三个典型领域，验证了大数据驱动下政策制定的可行性和优越性。结果表明，大数据技术能够显著提高政策制定的信息全面性、时效性和针对性，同时有效降低决策风险和资源浪费。本研究的创新点在于首次提出了一种跨领域数据整合的政策模拟模型，并将实时动态监测机制引入政策评估环节，从而实现了从问题诊断到方案实施的全流程闭环管理。此外，研究还强调了数据隐私保护与伦理规范的重要性，提出了相应的治理建议。关键词：大数据技术，公共政策制定，数据挖掘
ABSTRACT
With the rapid development of information technology, big data technology provides a new methodological support and practice path for public policy formulation. The purpose of this study is to explore how to use big data technology to improve the scientific, accurate and effective nature of public policy making, so as to deal with the problems of information asymmetry, data shortage and the decision-making lag in the traditional policy making process. Based on multi-source big data collection and fusion technology, combined with machine learning algorithm and data mining methods, a complete set of policy analysis fr amework is constructed, which is used to identify social problems, predict policy effects and optimize decision-making schemes. Through empirical analysis, three typical fields, namely, urban traffic management, public health emergency response and social welfare distribution, were selected to verify the feasibility and superiority of policy making driven by big data. The results show that big data technology can significantly improve the information comprehensiveness, timeliness and pertinacity of policy formulation, while effectively reduce the decision-making risk and resource waste. The innovation point of this study is to first propose a policy simulation model of cross-field data integration, and introduce the real-time dynamic monitoring mechanism into the policy evaluation link, so as to realize the closed-loop management of the whole process from problem diagnosis to program implementation. In addition, the study emphasizes the importance of data privacy protection and ethical norms, and makes corresponding governance suggestions.Keywords: Big data technology, public policy formulation, data mining
目 录
摘 要 I
ABSTRACT II
第一章 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景及意义 1
1.2 国内外研究现状 1
第二章 大数据在公共政策制定中的应用基础 3
2.1 大数据的核心特征与价值 3
2.2 公共政策制定的基本流程 3
2.3 数据驱动的政策制定框架 4
2.4 技术支撑与基础设施建设 4
第三章 基于大数据的公共政策需求识别 6
3.1 数据采集与预处理方法 6
3.2 社会需求的精准感知 6
3.3 数据分析模型的选择与优化 7
3.4 需求识别中的挑战与对策 7
第四章 大数据支持下的政策方案设计与评估 9
4.1 政策模拟与预测技术 9
4.2 数据驱动的政策方案生成 9
4.3 政策效果评估指标体系构建 10
4.4 动态调整机制的设计与实施 10
结束语 12
谢 辞 13
参考文献 14
