摘要
会计估计变更作为企业财务报告中的重要组成部分，其主观性和灵活性为管理层提供了潜在的盈余管理空间。本文以会计估计变更为研究对象，探讨其背后的盈余管理动机及其识别方法。基于现有文献和理论框架，本文选取2010年至2022年间中国A股上市公司为样本，采用事件研究法与多元回归分析相结合的方法，系统考察了会计估计变更的经济后果及动因。研究发现，部分企业在面临业绩压力或特定监管环境时，倾向于通过调整会计估计实现盈余目标，且这种行为具有显著的选择性与时效性。本文创新性地构建了一套基于多维度指标的会计估计变更识别模型，能够有效区分正常经营调整与盈余管理行为。该模型不仅提升了识别精度，还为监管机构提供了科学依据。研究表明，强化对会计估计变更的披露要求和审计监督，有助于降低盈余管理的发生概率，提升资本市场信息质量。本文的主要贡献在于深化了对会计估计变更动机的理解，并为相关领域的研究提供了新的分析工具和实证证据。
关键词：会计估计变更；盈余管理；识别模型；经济后果；监管监督
Abstract
Accounting estimate changes, as a critical component of corporate financial reporting, offer management a degree of subjectivity and flexibility that can potentially be exploited for earnings management. This study focuses on accounting estimate changes to explore the underlying motivations for earnings management and the methods for identifying such practices. Drawing on existing literature and theoretical fr ameworks, this research selects A-share listed companies in China from 2010 to 2022 as the sample, employing a combination of event study methodology and multiple regression analysis to systematically examine the economic consequences and drivers of accounting estimate changes. The findings reveal that some firms, when facing performance pressure or specific regulatory environments, tend to adjust accounting estimates to achieve earnings targets, exhibiting significant selectivity and timeliness in such behavior. Innovatively, this study constructs a multidimensional indicator-based identification model for accounting estimate changes, which effectively distinguishes between normal operational adjustments and earnings management activities. This model not only enhances the accuracy of identification but also provides scientific support for regulatory authorities. The research indicates that strengthening disclosure requirements and audit supervision regarding accounting estimate changes can reduce the likelihood of earnings management, thereby improving the quality of capital market information. The primary contribution of this study lies in deepening the understanding of the motivations behind accounting estimate changes and providing new analytical tools and empirical evidence for related research fields.
Keywords：Accounting Estimate Change; Earnings Management; Identification Model; Economic Consequences; Regulatory Supervision
目 录
摘要 I
Abstract II
一、绪论 1
(一) 会计估计变更与盈余管理的研究背景 1
(二) 国内外研究现状与理论基础 1
(三) 研究方法与技术路线 2
二、会计估计变更的动机分析 2
(一) 盈余管理动机的理论框架 2
(二) 会计估计变更的主要动机类型 3
(三) 动机驱动下的行为特征分析 3
三、会计估计变更的识别方法 4
(一) 会计估计变更的基本特征与表现形式 4
(二) 常见识别方法及其适用性分析 4
(三) 数据驱动的识别模型构建 5
四、实证研究与案例分析 5
(一) 实证研究设计与数据来源 6
(二) 案例分析 6
(三) 结果分析与动机验证 7
结 论 8
参考文献 9
