摘要
随着经济环境的复杂化和企业经营不确定性的增加，内部控制质量与财务风险预警机制的研究逐渐成为学术界和实务界的关注焦点。本研究旨在探讨内部控制质量对企业财务风险预警能力的影响，并构建一个系统化的分析框架。基于我国沪深A股上市公司2015年至2022年的面板数据，采用多元回归分析方法，结合内部控制评价指标体系与财务风险预警模型，深入剖析内部控制质量在财务风险管理中的作用机制。研究结果表明，较高的内部控制质量能够显著降低企业的财务风险水平，并增强财务风险预警的准确性和及时性。此外，通过引入中介变量和调节变量，进一步验证了信息透明度在二者关系中的中介效应以及外部审计质量的强化作用。本研究的创新点在于将内部控制质量与财务风险预警机制相结合，突破了传统单一维度的研究视角，同时为优化企业内部控制体系提供了理论支持和实践指导。研究成果不仅有助于企业完善内部控制制度以应对财务风险，也为监管机构制定相关政策提供了参考依据，从而推动资本市场的健康发展。
关键词：内部控制质量；财务风险预警；信息透明度；外部审计质量；面板数据
Abstract
With the increasing complexity of the economic environment and the rising uncertainty in corporate operations, research on internal control quality and financial risk early warning mechanisms has gradually become a focal point for both academia and practice. This study aims to explore the impact of internal control quality on firms' financial risk early warning capabilities and to construct a systematic analytical fr amework. Based on panel data from Chinese A-share listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2015 to 2022, this study employs multivariate regression analysis, integrating an internal control evaluation index system with a financial risk early warning model, to thoroughly examine the role mechanism of internal control quality in financial risk management. The results indicate that higher internal control quality can significantly reduce a firm's financial risk level while enhancing the accuracy and timeliness of financial risk early warnings. Furthermore, by introducing mediating and moderating variables, the study confirms the mediating effect of information transparency in the relationship between internal control quality and financial risk, as well as the reinforcing role of external audit quality. The innovation of this study lies in its integration of internal control quality with financial risk early warning mechanisms, breaking through the traditional single-dimensional research perspective, and providing theoretical support and practical guidance for optimizing corporate internal control systems. The findings not only contribute to improving internal control systems to address financial risks but also offer reference for regulatory authorities in formulating relevant policies, thereby promoting the healthy development of capital markets.
Keywords：Internal Control Quality; Financial Risk Warning; Information Transparency; External Audit Quality; Panel Data
目 录
摘要 I
Abstract II
一、绪论 1
(一) 研究背景与意义 1
(二) 国内外研究现状综述 1
(三) 研究方法与技术路线 2
二、内部控制质量的理论基础与评估框架 2
(一) 内部控制质量的概念界定 2
(二) 内部控制质量的影响因素分析 3
(三) 内部控制质量的评估指标体系 3
三、企业财务风险的识别与预警机制构建 4
(一) 财务风险的类型与特征分析 4
(二) 财务风险的识别方法与工具 4
(三) 预警机制的设计原则与实施路径 5
四、内部控制质量对企业财务风险预警的作用机制 5
(一) 内部控制质量与财务风险的关系分析 6
(二) 内部控制质量提升财务风险预警能力的路径 6
(三) 实证研究 7
结 论 8
参考文献 9
