摘 要
随着全球化进程的加速和互联网技术的迅猛发展，跨境电商已成为国际贸易的重要组成部分，其物流环节作为连接供需双方的关键纽带，面临着日益复杂的不确定性与风险。本研究以跨境电商物流风险为切入点，旨在系统识别其主要风险因素并构建科学有效的防控机制。通过文献综述、案例分析及问卷调查相结合的方法，研究首先梳理了跨境电商物流的风险类型，包括供应链中断、通关障碍、运输延误、信息不对称等，并进一步探讨了这些风险的成因及其对运营效率的影响。基于此，研究采用层次分析法（AHP）与模糊综合评价模型，量化评估各类风险的重要性程度，从而为优先级排序提供依据。此外，研究创新性地提出了一个多维度、动态化的物流风险防控框架，该框架整合了信息技术、合作伙伴选择优化以及政策法规适应策略，能够有效降低风险发生的概率并提升应对能力。结果表明，信息化水平不足、国际法规差异以及突发事件管理能力薄弱是当前跨境电商物流面临的主要挑战。最终，研究得出结论：通过强化数字化转型、深化国际合作以及完善法律法规体系，可以显著增强跨境电商物流的风险抵御能力。本研究不仅填补了跨境电商物流风险管理领域系统性研究的空白，还为相关企业及管理部门提供了实践指导，具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。
关键词：跨境电商物流；风险防控；信息化水平；国际法规差异；突发事件管理
Abstract
With the acceleration of globalization and the rapid development of Internet technology, cross-border e-commerce has become an essential component of international trade. As a critical link connecting supply and demand, its logistics环节 face increasingly complex uncertainties and risks. This study focuses on the risks associated with cross-border e-commerce logistics, aiming to systematically identify the primary risk factors and construct a scientifically effective prevention and control mechanism. By integrating literature review, case analysis, and questionnaire surveys, the study first categorizes the types of risks in cross-border e-commerce logistics, including supply chain disruptions, customs clearance obstacles, transportation delays, and information asymmetry, while further exploring the causes of these risks and their impacts on operational efficiency. Based on this, the study employs the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation models to quantitatively assess the significance levels of various risks, providing a basis for prioritization. Additionally, the study innovatively proposes a multi-dimensional and dynamic logistics risk prevention fr amework that integrates information technology, optimized partner selection, and policy regulation adaptation strategies, effectively reducing the probability of risk occurrence and enhancing response capabilities. The results indicate that insufficient informatization, differences in international regulations, and weak management of emergencies are the main challenges currently faced by cross-border e-commerce logistics. Ultimately, the study concludes that strengthening digital transformation, deepening international cooperation, and improving legal and regulatory systems can significantly enhance the risk resistance capabilities of cross-border e-commerce logistics. This research not only fills the gap in systematic studies on risk management in cross-border e-commerce logistics but also provides practical guidance for relevant enterprises and management departments, possessing significant theoretical value and practical implications.
Keywords: Cross-Border E-Commerce Logistics; Risk Prevention And Control; Information Level; International Regulatory Differences; Emergency Management
目 录
一、绪论 1
（一）跨境电商物流风险研究背景 1
（二）跨境电商物流风险研究意义 1
（三）国内外研究现状分析 1
（四）本文研究方法与技术路线 2
二、跨境电商物流风险识别体系构建 2
（一）跨境电商物流风险的分类与特征 2
（二）风险识别的关键要素分析 3
（三）数据驱动的风险识别方法 3
（四）风险识别体系的优化建议 4
三、跨境电商物流风险评估机制研究 4
（一）风险评估的核心指标体系 4
（二）定量与定性评估方法对比 5
（三）基于大数据的风险评估模型构建 5
（四）风险评估机制的改进方向 6
四、跨境电商物流风险防控策略设计 6
（一）防控机制的基本原则与框架 6
（二）技术支持下的风险防控手段 7
（三）政策与法规对风险防控的影响 7
（四）跨境合作在风险防控中的作用 8
结论 8
参考文献 10
致 谢 11
