行业周期性与企业财务风险关系的实证研究

摘  要：行业周期性与企业财务风险关系的实证研究聚焦于宏观经济波动对企业微观财务状况的影响机制。在全球经济环境日益复杂多变的背景下，探究行业周期性特征如何作用于企业财务风险具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。本研究旨在揭示不同行业在经济周期各阶段中面临的独特财务风险特征及其演变规律，为企业的风险管理提供科学依据。基于此，选取2010 - 2020年中国A股上市公司为样本，运用面板数据模型进行实证分析。结果表明，行业周期性对企业的短期偿债能力、长期偿债能力和盈利能力等财务指标存在显著影响，并且这种影响因行业属性而异。创新之处在于将行业划分为周期性与非周期性两类分别考察其差异，同时引入滞后项以捕捉动态变化过程。

关键词：行业周期性；企业财务风险；面板数据模型

Abstract：The empirical study of the relationship between the industry periodicity and the financial risk of enterprises focuses on the influence mechanism of macroeconomic fluctuations on the micro financial situation of enterprises. Under the background of the increasingly complex and changeable global economic environment, it is of important theoretical significance and practical value to explore how the cyclical characteristics of the industry act on the financial risks of enterprises. This study aims to reveal the unique financial risk characteristics and evolution rules of different industries in various stages of the economic cycle, so as to provide a scientific basis for the risk management of enterprises. Based on this, China's A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2020 are selected as samples, and the panel data model is used for empirical analysis. The results show that the industry periodicity has a significant impact on the financial indicators such as short-term solvency, long-term solvency and profitability, and this impact varies according to the industry attribute. The innovation lies in dividing the industry into cyclical and non-cyclical categories to investigate their differences, and introduce lag items to capture the dynamic change process.

Key words：Industry periodicity; enterprise financial risk; panel data model


目  录
摘要 1
Abstract 1
一、行业周期性理论基础 3
（一）行业周期性的概念界定 3
（二）行业周期性的特征分析 3
（三）行业周期性的影响因素 4
二、企业财务风险的构成 4
（一）财务风险的基本概念 4
（二）财务风险的主要类型 5
（三）财务风险的评估方法 5
三、行业周期性对企业财务风险的影响机制 6
（一）经济波动对财务风险的影响 6
（二）市场需求变化与财务风险 6
（三）政策环境变动与财务风险 6
四、实证研究设计与结果分析 7
（一）研究样本的选择标准 7
（二）数据收集与处理方法 7
（三）实证结果与讨论分析 8
五、 结论 8
参考文献 9

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