摘 要
随着全球化进程加快和市场竞争加剧，环境不确定性成为企业面临的重要挑战，其对企业财务策略选择的影响日益显著。本研究旨在探讨环境不确定性如何影响企业财务策略选择，基于资源基础观与权变理论，选取2010 - 2020年中国A股上市公司为样本，运用多元回归分析方法进行实证检验。结果表明，在高环境不确定性下，企业倾向于采取保守的财务策略，如增加现金持有水平、降低资本支出规模、提高债务融资比例等，以增强应对风险的能力；同时发现企业规模、产权性质等因素在环境不确定性与财务策略选择关系中起到调节作用。创新之处在于从动态视角出发，将环境不确定性细分为市场不确定性、政策不确定性和技术不确定性三个维度，并分别考察其对不同财务策略的影响机制，拓展了现有研究框架。此外，本研究还构建了环境不确定性影响企业财务策略选择的作用路径模型，为企业制定适应环境变化的财务策略提供了理论依据，也为政府相关部门制定产业政策提供参考。
关键词：环境不确定性 财务策略选择 市场不确定性
Abstract
As globalization accelerates and market competition intensifies, environmental uncertainty has become a significant challenge for enterprises, exerting an increasingly pronounced influence on their financial strategy choices. This study aims to explore how environmental uncertainty affects corporate financial strategy selection. Based on the resource-based view and contingency theory, this research selects Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2020 as samples and employs multiple regression analysis for empirical testing. The results indicate that under high environmental uncertainty, enterprises tend to adopt conservative financial strategies, such as increasing cash holdings, reducing capital expenditure scale, and raising the proportion of debt financing, to enhance their risk response capabilities. Meanwhile, it is found that factors like enterprise size and ownership nature play a moderating role in the relationship between environmental uncertainty and financial strategy choice. The innovation of this study lies in its dynamic perspective, subdividing environmental uncertainty into three dimensions: market uncertainty, policy uncertainty, and technological uncertainty, and examining their respective impact mechanisms on different financial strategies, thereby expanding the existing research fr amework. Additionally, this study constructs a model of the effect path through which environmental uncertainty influences corporate financial strategy choice, providing a theoretical basis for enterprises to formulate financial strategies adaptable to environmental changes and offering references for relevant government departments in formulating industrial policies.
Keyword:Environmental Uncertainty Financial Strategy Selection Market Uncertainty
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1研究背景与意义 1
1.2国内外研究现状 1
1.3研究方法与思路 2
2环境不确定性对企业资本结构的影响 2
2.1资本结构理论基础 2
2.2不确定性下的融资决策 3
2.3风险管理与资本配置 3
3环境不确定性对投资策略的影响 4
3.1投资决策的理论框架 4
3.2不确定性与项目选择 5
3.3投资时机的选择考量 5
4环境不确定性对股利政策的影响 6
4.1股利政策理论综述 6
4.2不确定性下的股利分配 7
4.3股东利益与风险管理 7
结论 8
参考文献 9
致谢 10
