摘 要
随着能源转型和可再生能源的快速发展，电力系统调峰问题日益突出，传统的单一电源调峰方式已难以满足系统灵活性需求。为此，本研究旨在构建一种需求响应参与调峰的效益分析模型，以量化需求响应在提升系统灵活性和经济效益中的作用。研究基于电力系统运行特性，结合经济学原理，提出了一种综合考虑技术、经济和环境因素的多目标优化框架。通过引入分时电价机制和用户行为模型，该框架能够准确评估需求响应对负荷曲线平滑化及调峰成本降低的贡献。研究采用实证分析方法，以某区域电网为案例，利用历史负荷数据和仿真工具进行建模与计算。结果表明，需求响应能够显著降低系统调峰成本，提高资源利用效率，并减少碳排放。具体而言，在所研究的案例中，需求响应的应用使调峰成本下降约15%，同时碳排放量减少约10%。此外，研究还发现，合理的激励机制设计是促进用户参与需求响应的关键因素。本研究的创新点在于首次将用户行为动态特性纳入调峰效益分析模型，并提出了一个多维度评价指标体系，为政策制定者和电网运营商提供了科学决策依据。研究成果不仅有助于推动需求响应的大规模应用，也为实现电力系统的低碳化和智能化发展提供了重要参考。关键词：需求响应；调峰效益；多目标优化；用户行为模型；碳排放
Abstract
With the rapid development of energy transition and renewable energy, the peak-load regulation problem in power systems has become increasingly prominent, and traditional single-source peak regulation methods are no longer sufficient to meet the system's flexibility requirements. To address this challenge, this study aims to construct a benefit analysis model for demand response participation in peak regulation, quantifying the role of demand response in enhancing system flexibility and economic efficiency. Based on the operational characteristics of power systems and principles of economics, a multi-ob jective optimization fr amework is proposed that comprehensively considers technical, economic, and environmental factors. By incorporating time-of-use pricing mechanisms and user behavior models, the fr amework can accurately evaluate the contribution of demand response to load curve smoothing and the reduction of peak regulation costs. An empirical analysis approach is adopted, using a regional power grid as a case study, with historical load data and simulation tools employed for modeling and computation. The results indicate that demand response can significantly reduce system peak regulation costs, improve resource utilization efficiency, and decrease carbon emissions. Specifically, in the studied case, the application of demand response led to a 15% reduction in peak regulation costs and a 10% decrease in carbon emissions. Additionally, the study finds that the design of appropriate incentive mechanisms is a critical factor in promoting user participation in demand response programs. The innovation of this research lies in its first-time integration of dynamic user behavior characteristics into the peak regulation benefit analysis model, along with the proposal of a multi-dimensional evaluation index system. This provides a scientific decision-making basis for policymakers and grid operators. The findings not only facilitate the large-scale application of demand response but also offer significant references for achieving the low-carbon and intelligent development of power systems..
Key Words：Demand Response；Peak Shaving Benefit；Multi-ob jective Optimization；User Behavior Model；Carbon Emission Reduction
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
第1章 绪论 2
1.1 需求响应参与调峰的研究背景与意义 2
1.2 需求响应参与调峰的效益分析模型研究现状 2
1.3 本文研究需求响应参与调峰效益分析模型的方法 3
第2章 需求响应参与调峰的理论基础与框架构建 5
2.1 需求响应的基本概念与分类 5
2.2 调峰机制及其在电力系统中的作用 6
2.3 需求响应参与调峰的技术路径分析 6
2.4 效益分析模型的理论框架构建 7
第3章 需求响应参与调峰的效益量化方法 9
3.1 经济效益的量化分析 9
3.1.1 成本节约评估模型 9
3.1.2 收益分配机制设计 9
3.1.3 不同场景下的经济效益对比 10
3.1.4 经济效益敏感性分析 10
3.2 环境效益的量化分析 10
3.2.1 温室气体减排量计算 11
3.2.2 污染物排放减少评估 11
3.2.3 可再生能源消纳提升效果 12
3.2.4 环境效益综合评价指标体系 12
3.3 社会效益的量化分析 12
3.3.1 用户满意度提升评估 13
3.3.2 电网稳定性改善分析 13
3.3.3 就业机会创造评估 13
3.3.4 社会效益综合评价方法 14
第4章 需求响应参与调峰的案例分析与优化策略 15
4.1 实际案例的数据收集与处理 15
4.1.1 数据来源与质量控制 15
4.1.2 数据预处理方法 15
4.1.3 案例背景介绍 16
4.1.4 数据分析工具选择 16
4.2 案例中效益分析模型的应用 16
4.2.1 模型参数设定与校准 17
4.2.2 模型运行结果分析 17
4.2.3 结果验证与误差分析 17
4.2.4 模型改进方向探讨 18
4.3 需求响应参与调峰的优化策略研究 18
4.3.1 用户激励机制设计优化 18
4.3.2 技术支持系统升级方案 19
4.3.3 政策保障措施完善建议 19
4.3.4 多主体协同优化策略 20
结 论 20
参考文献 22
致 谢 23
