摘 要
数字货币的快速发展对传统金融体系和中央银行货币政策的有效性提出了新的挑战与机遇。本研究以数字货币兴起为背景，探讨其对中央银行货币政策传导机制及政策有效性的影响。通过构建理论模型并结合实证分析方法，研究选取了全球主要经济体的相关数据，系统评估了数字货币普及程度、支付方式变革以及去中心化金融发展对货币政策目标实现路径的作用。研究表明，数字货币的广泛应用可能削弱传统货币政策工具的效果，特别是在利率传导和信贷分配方面，但同时也为中央银行提供了创新政策工具的可能性，例如数字法定货币（CBDC）的引入。研究发现，数字货币对货币政策有效性的具体影响取决于其技术特性、市场接受度以及监管框架的设计。本文的创新点在于首次将数字货币的技术属性纳入货币政策分析框架，并通过跨区域比较揭示了不同数字货币模式对货币政策传导的异质性影响。此外，研究还提出了适应数字货币时代的货币政策调整建议，强调加强国际合作与技术融合的重要性。总体而言，本研究不仅深化了对数字货币经济效应的理解，也为中央银行在数字化转型中的角色定位提供了理论依据和实践参考。
关键词：数字货币；货币政策有效性；中央银行；数字法定货币（CBDC）；技术属性
Abstract
The rapid development of digital currencies poses new challenges and opportunities for the traditional financial system and the effectiveness of central banks' monetary policies. This study, against the backdrop of the rise of digital currencies, investigates their impact on the transmission mechanism of central banks' monetary policies and the effectiveness of such policies. By constructing a theoretical model and employing empirical analysis methods, the study selects relevant data from major global economies to systematically evaluate the role of the普及程度 of digital currencies, changes in payment methods, and the development of decentralized finance on the pathways to achieving monetary policy ob jectives. The findings indicate that the widespread adoption of digital currencies may weaken the effects of traditional monetary policy tools, particularly in terms of interest rate transmission and credit allocation, while also offering central banks the possibility of innovative policy instruments, such as the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The specific influence of digital currencies on the effectiveness of monetary policy is shown to depend on their technical characteristics, market acceptance, and the design of regulatory fr ameworks. A key innovation of this study lies in its integration of the technical attributes of digital currencies into the fr amework of monetary policy analysis, revealing through cross-regional comparisons the heterogeneous impacts of different digital currency models on monetary policy transmission. Furthermore, the study proposes adjustments to monetary policy suited to the era of digital currencies, emphasizing the importance of strengthening international cooperation and technological integration. Overall, this research not only deepens the understanding of the economic implications of digital currencies but also provides theoretical foundations and practical references for central banks' role positioning in the context of digital transformation.
Keywords: Digital Currency; Monetary Policy Effectiveness; Central Bank; Digital Legal Tender (CBDC); Technical Attributes
目 录
一、绪论 1
（一）数字货币与货币政策背景分析 1
（二）研究数字货币对货币政策意义探讨 1
（三）国内外研究现状综述 1
（四）本文研究方法与技术路线 2
二、数字货币对货币政策传导机制的影响 2
（一）货币政策传统传导机制概述 2
（二）数字货币对利率传导渠道的作用 3
（三）数字货币对信贷传导渠道的干扰 3
（四）数字货币对资产价格传导的影响 4
（五）数字货币对国际资本流动的效应 4
三、数字货币对中央银行货币控制能力的影响 5
（一）中央银行货币控制能力的核心要素 5
（二）数字货币发行对基础货币管理的挑战 5
（三）数字货币流通对货币乘数的影响 6
（四）数字货币对货币供应量统计的冲击 6
（五）数字货币对货币政策独立性的影响 7
四、数字货币背景下货币政策工具的有效性评估 7
（一）常规货币政策工具在数字货币环境下的适用性 7
（二）数字货币对非常规货币政策工具的制约 8
（三）数字货币对利率政策效果的重塑 8
（四）数字货币对量化宽松政策的影响分析 9
（五）政策工具创新以应对数字货币挑战 9
结论 10
参考文献 11
致 谢 12
