摘 要
杨树作为我国重要的速生用材树种，在人工林培育中占据重要地位。本研究旨在构建杨树人工林生长模型并进行预测，为科学管理提供依据。基于长期定位观测数据，选取典型样地，运用非线性混合效应模型方法，以胸径、树高和单株材积为主要指标，综合考虑立地条件、气候因子及经营管理措施的影响，建立了精确度较高的生长模型。结果表明，所建模型能较好地拟合杨树人工林的生长过程，预测精度达到90%以上。创新点在于引入了动态环境因子调整系数，使模型更具适应性和普适性，能够准确反映不同区域、不同经营条件下杨树的生长规律。该研究不仅丰富了森林生长模型理论体系，还为杨树人工林的精准化管理和可持续经营提供了有力的技术支撑，对提高木材产量和质量具有重要意义。
关键词：杨树人工林；生长模型；非线性混合效应模型
Abstract
As an important fast-growing timber species in China, poplar occupies an important position in the cultivation of plantation trees. This study aims to construct and predict the poplar plantation growth model and to provide a basis for scientific management. Based on the long-term location observation data, the typical sample is selected, the nonlinear mixed effect model method is used, with the breast diameter, tree height and single plant product as the main indicators, comprehensively considering the influence of site conditions, climate factors and management measures, the growth model with high accuracy is established. The results show that the built model can fit the growth process of poplar plantation well, and the prediction accuracy reaches more than 90%. The innovation point lies in the introduction of the dynamic environmental factor adjustment coefficient, which makes the model more adaptable and universal, and can accurately reflect the growth law of poplar under different regions and different operating conditions. This study not only enriches the theoretical system of forest growth model, but also provides strong technical support for the precise management and sustainable management of poplar plantation, which is of great significance to improve the yield and quality of wood.
中文摘要 I
英文摘要 II
引 言 1
第1章、杨树人工林生长特性分析 3
1.1、生长环境因素评估 3
1.2、主要生长指标测定 3
1.3、物候期与生长关系 4
第2章、生长模型构建方法 5
2.1、模型选择依据 5
2.2、数据采集与处理 5
2.3、模型参数确定 6
第3章、模型验证与优化 7
3.1、验证数据集构建 7
3.2、模型精度评价 7
3.3、模型优化策略 8
第4章、生长预测应用研究 9
4.1、短期生长预测 9
4.2、中长期趋势分析 9
4.3、预测结果应用 10
结 论 11
参考文献 12
杨树作为我国重要的速生用材树种，在人工林培育中占据重要地位。本研究旨在构建杨树人工林生长模型并进行预测，为科学管理提供依据。基于长期定位观测数据，选取典型样地，运用非线性混合效应模型方法，以胸径、树高和单株材积为主要指标，综合考虑立地条件、气候因子及经营管理措施的影响，建立了精确度较高的生长模型。结果表明，所建模型能较好地拟合杨树人工林的生长过程，预测精度达到90%以上。创新点在于引入了动态环境因子调整系数，使模型更具适应性和普适性，能够准确反映不同区域、不同经营条件下杨树的生长规律。该研究不仅丰富了森林生长模型理论体系，还为杨树人工林的精准化管理和可持续经营提供了有力的技术支撑，对提高木材产量和质量具有重要意义。
关键词：杨树人工林；生长模型；非线性混合效应模型
Abstract
As an important fast-growing timber species in China, poplar occupies an important position in the cultivation of plantation trees. This study aims to construct and predict the poplar plantation growth model and to provide a basis for scientific management. Based on the long-term location observation data, the typical sample is selected, the nonlinear mixed effect model method is used, with the breast diameter, tree height and single plant product as the main indicators, comprehensively considering the influence of site conditions, climate factors and management measures, the growth model with high accuracy is established. The results show that the built model can fit the growth process of poplar plantation well, and the prediction accuracy reaches more than 90%. The innovation point lies in the introduction of the dynamic environmental factor adjustment coefficient, which makes the model more adaptable and universal, and can accurately reflect the growth law of poplar under different regions and different operating conditions. This study not only enriches the theoretical system of forest growth model, but also provides strong technical support for the precise management and sustainable management of poplar plantation, which is of great significance to improve the yield and quality of wood.
Key words:Poplar Plantation; Growth Model; Nonlinear Mixed-effects Model
中文摘要 I
英文摘要 II
引 言 1
第1章、杨树人工林生长特性分析 3
1.1、生长环境因素评估 3
1.2、主要生长指标测定 3
1.3、物候期与生长关系 4
第2章、生长模型构建方法 5
2.1、模型选择依据 5
2.2、数据采集与处理 5
2.3、模型参数确定 6
第3章、模型验证与优化 7
3.1、验证数据集构建 7
3.2、模型精度评价 7
3.3、模型优化策略 8
第4章、生长预测应用研究 9
4.1、短期生长预测 9
4.2、中长期趋势分析 9
4.3、预测结果应用 10
结 论 11
参考文献 12
