摘 要
会计估计变更作为企业财务信息调整的重要方式，其动机与经济后果备受关注。在复杂的市场环境中，企业面临多变的经营状况和监管要求，会计估计变更成为一种应对策略。本研究旨在探究企业进行会计估计变更的真实动机及其对资本市场、利益相关者产生的经济后果。基于2010 - 2020年中国A股上市公司的数据样本，采用事件研究法、多元回归分析等方法，从盈余管理动机、应计利润操纵动机等方面深入剖析会计估计变更背后的驱动因素。研究发现，部分企业存在通过会计估计变更进行盈余管理的现象，且这种变更对股价波动、投资者信心以及债权人的信贷决策均产生显著影响。创新之处在于区分了不同性质的企业（如国有企业与民营企业）在会计估计变更行为上的差异，并首次将管理层股权激励纳入考量范围，揭示出股权激励机制下管理层更倾向于利用会计估计变更实现个人收益最大化。本研究不仅丰富了会计估计变更领域的理论成果，还为监管部门制定相关政策提供了实证依据，有助于规范企业的会计估计变更行为，维护资本市场的稳定健康发展。
关键词：会计估计变更；盈余管理；经济后果；管理层股权激励；企业性质差异
Abstract
Changes in accounting estimates serve as a critical method for adjusting financial information in enterprises, and their motivations and economic consequences have garnered significant attention. In a complex market environment, companies face volatile operating conditions and regulatory requirements, leading to the adoption of changes in accounting estimates as a strategic response. This study aims to investigate the genuine motivations behind such changes and their economic impacts on capital markets and stakeholders. Utilizing data from Chinese A-share listed companies between 2010 and 2020, this research employs event study methodology and multiple regression analysis to delve into the driving forces behind changes in accounting estimates, focusing on motives such as earnings management and accruals manipulation. The findings reveal that some enterprises engage in earnings management through changes in accounting estimates, which significantly influence stock price volatility, investor confidence, and creditors' lending decisions. An innovative aspect of this study is its differentiation of changes in accounting estimates between different types of enterprises, such as state-owned and privately-owned firms, and it is the first to incorporate managerial equity incentives into the analysis. It uncovers that under equity incentive mechanisms, management tends to exploit changes in accounting estimates to maximize personal gains. This research not only enriches theoretical outcomes in the field of changes in accounting estimates but also provides empirical evidence for regulatory authorities to formulate relevant policies, thereby contributing to the standardization of corporate accounting estimate changes and promoting the stable and healthy development of capital markets.
Keywords：Accounting Estimate Change；Earnings Management；Economic Consequences；Management Equity Incentive；Firm Ownership Nature Difference
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
引 言 1
第一章 会计估计变更的理论基础 2
1.1 会计估计变更的概念界定 2
1.2 会计估计变更的法规依据 3
1.3 会计估计变更的类型分析 3
第二章 会计估计变更的动机探究 5
2.1 管理层利益驱动分析 5
2.2 盈余管理动机剖析 5
2.3 规避风险的动机考量 6
第三章 会计估计变更的经济后果 8
3.1 对财务报表的影响评估 8
3.2 对投资者决策的影响研究 8
3.3 对公司价值的影响分析 9
第四章 会计估计变更的监管与对策 11
4.1 当前监管体系评述 11
4.2 监管存在的问题探讨 11
4.3 完善监管的对策建议 12
结 论 14
参考文献 15
致 谢 16
