摘 要
管理层过度自信与企业财务决策的关系是近年来行为金融学和公司金融领域的重要研究课题。在传统理性经济人假设下，企业管理层被视为能够做出最优财务决策的理性主体，然而现实情况表明管理层个体特征尤其是心理特质对企业财务决策有着不可忽视的影响。本研究基于中国A股上市公司2010 - 2020年的数据样本，采用文本分析方法量化管理层过度自信程度，通过构建多元回归模型探究管理层过度自信与企业财务决策之间的关系。研究发现管理层过度自信会显著影响企业的资本结构选择、投资行为以及股利政策等重要财务决策。具体而言，过度自信的管理层倾向于提高企业负债水平，进行激进的投资活动且更可能削减股利发放。这一结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。本研究创新地将文本分析应用于管理层过度自信程度的衡量，在一定程度上克服了以往研究中测量误差较大的问题，并且从行为金融学视角丰富了企业财务决策理论，为理解企业财务决策背后的深层次原因提供了新的思路，也为监管机构规范企业治理提供了一定参考依据。
关键词：管理层过度自信；企业财务决策；文本分析；资本结构；投资行为；股利政策
Abstract
The relationship between managerial overconfidence and corporate financial decisions has become an important research topic in behavioral finance and corporate finance. Under the traditional assumption of rational economic agents, corporate management is regarded as a rational entity capable of making optimal financial decisions. However, empirical evidence suggests that individual characteristics of managers, particularly psychological traits, have significant impacts on corporate financial decisions. This study investigates this issue using data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2020. By employing textual analysis to quantify the degree of managerial overconfidence, we construct a multiple regression model to explore the relationship between managerial overconfidence and corporate financial decisions. The findings indicate that managerial overconfidence significantly influences key financial decisions such as capital structure choice, investment behavior, and dividend policy. Specifically, overconfident managers tend to increase corporate leverage, engage in aggressive investment activities, and are more likely to cut dividend payouts. These conclusions remain robust after a series of robustness tests. Innovatively, this study applies textual analysis to measure the extent of managerial overconfidence, thereby addressing the issue of large measurement errors in previous studies. Moreover, it enriches the theoretical fr amework of corporate financial decision-making from a behavioral finance perspective, providing new insights into the underlying reasons for corporate financial decisions and offering valuable references for regulatory bodies aiming to standardize corporate governance.
Keywords：Managerial Overconfidence；Corporate Financial Decisions；Textual Analysis；Capital Structure；Investment Behavior；Dividend Policy
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
引 言 1
第一章 管理层过度自信的理论基础 2
1.1 过度自信的心理学解释 2
1.2 企业财务决策的基本框架 2
1.3 理论模型与研究假设 3
第二章 过度自信对投资决策的影响 4
2.1 投资规模的选择偏差 4
2.2 风险项目的选择倾向 4
2.3 并购决策中的过度自信表现 5
第三章 过度自信与资本结构决策 7
3.1 资本结构选择的偏差 7
3.2 杠杆水平的非理性调整 7
3.3 外部融资偏好与过度自信 8
第四章 过度自信对企业价值的影响 10
4.1 短期市场反应分析 10
4.2 长期绩效影响评估 10
4.3 企业价值创造的阻碍因素 11
结 论 13
参考文献 14
致 谢 15
