摘 要
财务失败预警模型作为企业风险管理的重要工具，其研究意义重大。在经济全球化背景下，企业面临的不确定性增加，准确预测财务失败成为企业生存发展的关键需求。本研究旨在构建一个全面的财务失败预警模型，以提高预测精度和实用性。基于多元统计分析方法，融合机器学习算法，选取涵盖盈利能力、偿债能力、营运能力等多维度的财务与非财务指标，构建了综合预警模型。创新之处在于突破传统模型局限，将非财务指标纳入考量，并引入机器学习优化算法，提高了模型适应性和预测效果。研究结论表明，所构建的财务失败预警模型能够为企业管理者提供科学决策依据，有助于提升企业风险防范能力，对完善我国企业预警机制具有重要理论价值和实践意义。
关键词：财务失败预警模型 机器学习算法 非财务指标
Abstract
As an important tool of enterprise risk management, the study of financial failure warning model is of great significance. In the context of economic globalization, enterprises are facing increased uncertainty, and accurate prediction of financial failure has become a key requirement for the survival and development of enterprises. The aim of this study is to construct a comprehensive financial failure warning model to improve the accuracy and practicability of prediction. Based on multivariate statistical analysis method and machine learning algorithm, a comprehensive early-warning model is constructed by selecting financial and non-financial indicators covering multiple dimensions such as profitability, solvency and operating capacity. The innovation lies in breaking through the limitations of the traditional model, taking non-financial indicators into consideration, and introducing machine learning optimization algorithms to improve the model adaptability and prediction effect. The conclusion shows that the financial failure early warning model can provide scientific decision basis for enterprise managers, help to improve the enterprise risk prevention ability, and has important theoretical and practical significance for improving the enterprise early warning mechanism in our country.
Keyword:Financial Failure Prediction Model Machine Learning Algorithm Non-Financial Indicators
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1研究背景与意义 1
1.2国内外研究现状 1
2财务失败预警模型原理分析 1
2.1预警模型理论基础 1
2.2主要预警指标体系构建 2
2.3模型构建技术方法 3
3预警模型的应用范围探讨 3
3.1不同行业应用特点 3
3.2企业生命周期中的应用 4
3.3特殊经济环境下的应用 5
4预警模型实施效果评估 5
4.1实证案例分析框架 5
4.2模型预测准确性评价 6
4.3应用效果改进建议 7
结论 7
参考文献 9
致谢 10
