摘 要
上市公司会计估计变更与市场反应研究聚焦于会计估计变更是企业财务报告中的重要组成部分，其对资本市场的影响备受关注。在经济环境复杂多变的背景下，企业面临的不确定性增加，会计估计变更频率有所提升，这不仅影响企业的财务报表质量，还可能引发资本市场的波动。本研究旨在探讨上市公司会计估计变更的动因、特征及其对市场反应的影响，通过分析2015 - 2020年沪深两市A股上市公司的会计估计变更数据，采用事件研究法和多元回归分析方法，考察不同类型会计估计变更对股票收益率、交易量等市场指标的影响。研究发现，会计估计变更存在显著的类型差异，其中资产减值准备、预计负债等变更对市场反应较为明显，而折旧与摊销等变更影响相对较小。进一步研究表明，盈余管理动机较强的公司进行会计估计变更时，市场反应更为负面，表明投资者对这类变更持谨慎态度。本研究创新性地将会计估计变更按具体项目分类，并结合公司治理水平进行分组比较，揭示了不同情境下会计估计变更的市场效应差异，为监管机构完善相关制度提供了理论依据，也为投资者评估企业风险提供了新的视角。
关键词：会计估计变更 市场反应 盈余管理
Abstract
This study focuses on accounting estimate changes in listed companies, which constitute a critical component of corporate financial reporting and have garnered significant attention for their impact on capital markets. In an economic environment characterized by increasing complexity and volatility, the uncertainties faced by enterprises have escalated, leading to a higher frequency of accounting estimate changes. This not only affects the quality of financial statements but may also trigger fluctuations in capital markets. The aim of this research is to investigate the motivations, characteristics, and market reactions associated with accounting estimate changes in listed companies. By analyzing data from A-share listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges between 2015 and 2020, this study employs event study methodology and multiple regression analysis to examine the effects of different types of accounting estimate changes on market indicators such as stock returns and trading volumes. The findings reveal significant differences among types of accounting estimate changes, with impairment provisions and estimated liabilities showing more pronounced market reactions compared to depreciation and amortization. Further analysis indicates that companies with stronger earnings management motives elicit more negative market reactions when making accounting estimate changes, suggesting investor caution towards such changes. Innovatively, this study categorizes accounting estimate changes by specific items and compares them across groups based on corporate governance levels, uncovering variations in market effects under different scenarios. These insights provide theoretical support for regulatory bodies to refine relevant policies and offer new perspectives for investors assessing corporate risks.
Keyword:Change In Accounting Estimates Market Reaction Earnings Management
目 录
引言 1
1会计估计变更的理论基础 1
1.1会计估计变更的概念界定 1
1.2会计估计变更的类型分析 2
1.3会计估计变更的动因探究 2
2市场反应的衡量与影响因素 3
2.1市场反应的衡量指标 3
2.2宏观环境对市场反应的影响 3
2.3公司治理结构对市场反应的作用 4
3会计估计变更的信息披露 5
3.1披露方式与及时性研究 5
3.2披露内容的深度与广度 5
3.3披露质量对市场反应的影响 6
4实证研究与案例分析 6
4.1研究假设与模型构建 6
4.2数据来源与样本选择 7
4.3案例分析与结果讨论 7
结论 8
参考文献 9
致谢 10
上市公司会计估计变更与市场反应研究聚焦于会计估计变更是企业财务报告中的重要组成部分，其对资本市场的影响备受关注。在经济环境复杂多变的背景下，企业面临的不确定性增加，会计估计变更频率有所提升，这不仅影响企业的财务报表质量，还可能引发资本市场的波动。本研究旨在探讨上市公司会计估计变更的动因、特征及其对市场反应的影响，通过分析2015 - 2020年沪深两市A股上市公司的会计估计变更数据，采用事件研究法和多元回归分析方法，考察不同类型会计估计变更对股票收益率、交易量等市场指标的影响。研究发现，会计估计变更存在显著的类型差异，其中资产减值准备、预计负债等变更对市场反应较为明显，而折旧与摊销等变更影响相对较小。进一步研究表明，盈余管理动机较强的公司进行会计估计变更时，市场反应更为负面，表明投资者对这类变更持谨慎态度。本研究创新性地将会计估计变更按具体项目分类，并结合公司治理水平进行分组比较，揭示了不同情境下会计估计变更的市场效应差异，为监管机构完善相关制度提供了理论依据，也为投资者评估企业风险提供了新的视角。
关键词：会计估计变更 市场反应 盈余管理
Abstract
This study focuses on accounting estimate changes in listed companies, which constitute a critical component of corporate financial reporting and have garnered significant attention for their impact on capital markets. In an economic environment characterized by increasing complexity and volatility, the uncertainties faced by enterprises have escalated, leading to a higher frequency of accounting estimate changes. This not only affects the quality of financial statements but may also trigger fluctuations in capital markets. The aim of this research is to investigate the motivations, characteristics, and market reactions associated with accounting estimate changes in listed companies. By analyzing data from A-share listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges between 2015 and 2020, this study employs event study methodology and multiple regression analysis to examine the effects of different types of accounting estimate changes on market indicators such as stock returns and trading volumes. The findings reveal significant differences among types of accounting estimate changes, with impairment provisions and estimated liabilities showing more pronounced market reactions compared to depreciation and amortization. Further analysis indicates that companies with stronger earnings management motives elicit more negative market reactions when making accounting estimate changes, suggesting investor caution towards such changes. Innovatively, this study categorizes accounting estimate changes by specific items and compares them across groups based on corporate governance levels, uncovering variations in market effects under different scenarios. These insights provide theoretical support for regulatory bodies to refine relevant policies and offer new perspectives for investors assessing corporate risks.
Keyword:Change In Accounting Estimates Market Reaction Earnings Management
目 录
引言 1
1会计估计变更的理论基础 1
1.1会计估计变更的概念界定 1
1.2会计估计变更的类型分析 2
1.3会计估计变更的动因探究 2
2市场反应的衡量与影响因素 3
2.1市场反应的衡量指标 3
2.2宏观环境对市场反应的影响 3
2.3公司治理结构对市场反应的作用 4
3会计估计变更的信息披露 5
3.1披露方式与及时性研究 5
3.2披露内容的深度与广度 5
3.3披露质量对市场反应的影响 6
4实证研究与案例分析 6
4.1研究假设与模型构建 6
4.2数据来源与样本选择 7
4.3案例分析与结果讨论 7
结论 8
参考文献 9
致谢 10
